The Horse in Motion
April 3, 2017·0 comments·big data
For decades after photography proved that galloping horses tuck their legs rather than stretch them in flight, artists kept painting them flying. Reality and narrative had diverged, but the preferred story won out. We're entering an era where similar divergences are becoming visible across markets and politics, and the technology revealing them is also the technology everyone is scrambling to understand.
- Narratives have shaped how we see systems work, often overriding what's actually observable. When a more romantic story exists, humans stick with it even after the evidence arrives. This pattern held in art history. It also holds in how we understand markets.
- A new technology is now capable of perceiving dimensions of the social world that human intelligence alone cannot access. Big Compute can process unstructured data, the communications and narratives flowing through society, in ways that reveal patterns invisible to individual observers or traditional analysis.
- The gap between what these systems reveal and what our preferred narratives suggest is already widening. Like Muybridge's photographs contradicted the flying horse myth, AI insights are contradicting how we think markets and politics actually operate. The question is whether we'll accept what we're seeing.
- Most people are treating this new visibility as a tool to be mastered rather than a mirror that reveals uncomfortable truths. This assumes the insights will confirm what we already believe. History suggests otherwise.
- If the patterns AI can now detect shift how we understand markets fundamentally, what happens to all the strategies built on the old understanding? The real disruption isn't the technology itself. It's what happens when enough people realize the narrative they've been operating from was always wrong.
The Why of Epsilon Theory
- Make more informed decisions as an investor and citizen.
- See through the nudges of Big Politics and Big Media.
- Become a better consumer of news.
- Maintain your autonomy of mind in a swarm of narratives.
- Join a community of more than 100,000 truth-seekers.
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DISCLOSURES
This commentary is being provided to you as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The opinions expressed in these materials represent the personal views of the author(s). It is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. Any action that you take as a result of information contained in this document is ultimately your responsibility. Epsilon Theory will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Consult your investment advisor before making any investment decisions. It must be noted, that no one can accurately predict the future of the market with certainty or guarantee future investment performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Statements in this communication are forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements and other views expressed herein are as of the date of this publication. Actual future results or occurrences may differ significantly from those anticipated in any forward-looking statements, and there is no guarantee that any predictions will come to pass. The views expressed herein are subject to change at any time, due to numerous market and other factors. Epsilon Theory disclaims any obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements or views expressed herein. This information is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities. This commentary has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Epsilon Theory recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor's individual circumstances and objectives.
