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The Best Way to Rob a Bank

Ben Hunt

March 9, 2021·12 comments·In Brief

A major investment bank collapsed this week, but the real story isn't its failure. It's that major institutions knowingly bought obviously bad loans, top regulators looked away, and politicians profited from the scheme while ordinary investors lost money in supposedly safe funds. The fraud wasn't hidden. It was protected by institutional incentives that made looking the other way more profitable than stopping it.

  • The same investment bank sold obviously fraudulent loans to one major fund in 2019, that fund collapsed, and investors lost billions. Within months, another mega-bank began buying even more of the same loans from the same originator.
  • The investors in the second bank's funds didn't know that some of their co-investors were actually funding themselves through the same bank. They thought they were in an arm's length financial arrangement. They weren't.
  • When a company couldn't repay a $435 million loan, the lender exchanged it for equity in a bankrupt company and reported zero loss. The accounting was clean. The math was fiction.
  • Major regulators eventually shut the operation down, but only after an insurance company got spooked and dropped out. The same regulators that were shocked by a similar collapse two years earlier. The same patterns. Different actors.
  • Now regulators are asking if the damage is contained. But the real question is whether anything has changed since the last time this happened, or whether the same mechanisms that protected this fraud are still in place.

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This commentary is being provided to you as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The opinions expressed in these materials represent the personal views of the author(s). It is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. Any action that you take as a result of information contained in this document is ultimately your responsibility. Epsilon Theory will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Consult your investment advisor before making any investment decisions. It must be noted, that no one can accurately predict the future of the market with certainty or guarantee future investment performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Statements in this communication are forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements and other views expressed herein are as of the date of this publication. Actual future results or occurrences may differ significantly from those anticipated in any forward-looking statements, and there is no guarantee that any predictions will come to pass. The views expressed herein are subject to change at any time, due to numerous market and other factors. Epsilon Theory disclaims any obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements or views expressed herein. This information is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities. This commentary has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. Epsilon Theory recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor's individual circumstances and objectives.

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