Actually Maybe Not So Excellent
August 11, 2015·0 comments·china
China devalued its currency, but what markets actually reacted to was something far more unsettling: the story about what the devaluation means shifted overnight. Where central banks had controlled the narrative before, this time the consensus moved from reassurance to alarm, even among outlets typically aligned with Beijing. The question isn't whether China's growth problem is real. It's whether anyone can still manage what the world believes about it.
• The narrative flipped without evidence changing. Initial media coverage portrayed the devaluation as a routine adjustment consistent with prior policy. Within hours, that story was overrun by accounts of shock and severity, suggesting deeper weakness in Chinese growth than central bankers had admitted or markets had priced.
• Central banks lost control of what the devaluation signals. If this were simply stimulus, markets would rally as they had before. Instead it's being framed as currency competition and desperation, which sends the opposite market signal and forces central bankers into a corner.
• Even Beijing's media allies couldn't maintain the preferred narrative. The shift appeared in outlets typically aligned with Chinese policy, suggesting it wasn't a coordinated Western effort but something more fragmented and harder to control.
• The shift cascaded through everything tied to global growth assumptions. Oil fell to $43. The 10-year Treasury dropped to 2.12%. Any asset priced on growth expectations got repriced based not on new facts but on a narrative that suddenly changed without explanation.
• If narratives can flip this fast even when central bankers are actively managing them, what happens when the next crisis breaks? This wasn't Beijing losing control of its own message. It was control itself becoming uncontrollable.
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